AgLetter: April 1997

Two recent reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture contained divergent short- and long-term price signals for corn and soybeans. The Grain Stocks report provided an indication of the amount of corn and soybeans remaining from last fall’s harvest as of March 1. It also provided a benchmark for gauging how much of the available supplies were used during the first-half of the marketing year and, for soybeans, it provided a means of judging the accuracy of last fall’s harvest estimate. For both corn and soybeans, the report tended to firm near term price prospects by signaling faster-than-expected use so far this marketing year. Conversely, the Planting Intentions report foreshadows bigger-than-expected increases in 1997 corn and soybean seedings. The indicated acreage, if supplemented by conducive weather conditions, could signal ample supplies for both consumption and a rebuilding of carryover stocks during the 1997/98 marketing year.