No Improvement in U.S. Economy in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –1.02 in June from an upward revised value of –0.95 in May. Sharp reductions in industrial production and manufacturing employment continued to keep the index at a low level in June. The three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, was –1.05 in June, a further deterioration from an upward revised –0.99 in May. The March and June CFNAI-MA3 indexes are consistent with the July 27 report that firstand second-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at annual rates of only 1.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. June marked the twelfth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication that the national economy has been growing below trend for a full year. Index values below zero also signal reduced inflationary pressures over the next year.