U.S. Recession Deepens in October

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was –1.70, up only slightly from a sharply downward revised value of –1.78 in September. The large negative readings in September and October pushed the three-month moving average index (CFNAI-MA3) down from September’s –1.06 to –1.56 in October. By dropping below –1.50, the CFNAI-MA3 fell into a negative range that historically has been observed only during economic recessions. October marked the sixteenth consecutive month that the CFNAI-MA3 was below zero, an indication of how long the national economy has been growing below trend. Index values below zero signal reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.