CFNAI Returns to Positive Territory in June

In June, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was above zero for the second time this year. The monthly index came in at +0.14, an increase from its upward revised value of –0.04 in May. After falling to –0.32 in February, the index increased in each of the next four months, with June at its highest value in two years. The rising values of the monthly index mean that the three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, has been increasing as well. In June, the CFNAI-MA3 came in at –0.03, increasing from May’s upward revised value of –0.17. While this was the second consecutive improvement in the CFNAI-MA3, it extends the streak of negative values to 23 consecutive months. The recent increase in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates that the national economy is improving, and its value near zero suggests that the pace of growth is not far from the long-run historical average. Index values above zero, if sustained, signal increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.