CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity index rose to +0.35 in July from a downward-revised reading of –0.19 the previous month. Of the four broad categories of indicators, only the employment-related category made a negative contribution to the CFNAI in July, and it was small. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to +0.25 in July from a downward-revised +0.27 in June. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.25 in July suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the eleventh straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.