CFNAI Suggests Somewhat Slower Economic Growth in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity index was 0.00 in June, a marked decrease from the May reading of +0.75. The production- and employment-related categories of indicators made negative contributions to the overall index in June, but these were offset by positive contributions from the consumption and housing category and from the sales, inventories, and orders category. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.41 in June, from +0.68 in May. However, CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.41 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend in June, as it has been since last September. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.