CFNAI Points to Above-Trend Economic Growth in October

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.52 in October, up sharply from –0.04 in September. For the first time since March, all four of the broad categories of indicators that comprise the index made positive contributions in October. Moreover, the contributions from production-related and employment-related indicators swung from negative in September to positive last month. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.22 in October, little changed from a reading of +0.24 in September. CFNAI-MA3 readings above zero are ssociated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.22 in October suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend for the fourteenth straight month. With regard to inflation, CFNAI-MA3 values above zero suggest increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.