CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Remains Above Trend in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.16 in July, down from +0.40 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index—employment, consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories—made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.23 in July. A CFNAI-MA3 reading of zero is associated with trend economic growth. After running close to zero between March and May, the index rose to approximately +0.20 in June and July. This suggests that growth in national economic activity moved back above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.