CFNAI Shows Economic Growth Slightly Above Trend in November

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.35 in November, down from +1.02 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions, while the remaining category made a neutral contribution (see sidebar). The threemonth moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.14 in November. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.14 in November suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value near zero indicates relatively neutral inflationary pressures over the coming year.