CFNAI Shows Economic Growth Above Trend in March
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.37 in March, up from +0.19 in February. All four broad categories of indicators in the index made positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.29 in March. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.29 in March suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.