CFNAI Indicates Economic Growth Slightly Above Trend in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -0.12 in July, down from +0.43 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made small positive contributions (see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined from +0.15 in June to +0.07 in July. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.07 for July suggests that growth in national economic activity was lightly above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.