The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month.

Index Suggests Economic Growth Decreased in September

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.28 in September from –0.01 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from August, and all four categories made negative contributions in September. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.19 in September from –0.14 in August.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.16 in September from –0.21 in August. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-nine indicators improved from August to September, while 43 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.21 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.04 in August.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in September, unchanged from August.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in September, down from a neutral value in August.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in September, up from –0.03 in August.

CFNAI, CFNAI-MA3, and CFNAI Diffusion for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month

Note: A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Notes: Shading represents periods of sustained increasing inflation. For details on the timing of these periods based on readings of core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices), see pp. 4–5 of the background information document. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.

Notes: Shading indicates official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.