Michigan Retail Index
The Michigan Retail Index is a monthly gauge of key retail activity in Michigan based on a monthly survey of Michigan Retail Association members. A new index is released by MRA on the fourth Wednesday of each month. The index tracks year-to-year increases or decreases in retail sales, inventory, prices, promotional efforts and hiring. It also indicates retailers’ forecasts in these areas for the next three months.
Download the survey's historical data.
Michigan Retailers Report Low February Sales, Mirroring January
LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association today reports that February 2024 sales performed moderately, landing at 48.0 on the 100-point Retail Index. The January 2024 Retail Index also came in at 48.0, indicating a flat retail economy.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity. The seasonally adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Forty-two percent noted an increase over January sales, forty-nine percent of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease and nine percent reported no change.
“Sales for 2024 have so far been flat, hitting the same mark in January and February. The immediate post-holiday season numbers are typically soft, as weather warms, we are expecting shopping to heat up as well,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “Retailers have strong levels of product on shelves, and are increasing promotional activities to bring customers into their stores and websites.”
Three-Month Optimism Rises
When asked to predict their 3-month sales outlook, seventy-four percent (74%) of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise through April, and fifteen percent (15%) said they expect their sales to decline. Eleven percent (11%) anticipate no change. That results in a 67.3 Index rating, an increase from last month’s prediction Index rating of 63.6 - a prediction of strong summer sales in Michigan.
“Spring and summer vacations are on the horizon for many Michiganians, and with that comes the need for new clothing, shoes and other travel essentials. We encourage folks making those purchases to Buy Nearby to help keep their money in Michigan.”
Supply Chain
Retailers were asked as part of the Index the status of their supply chain. A majority of retailers reported their supply chain has returned to pre-pandemic timing.
Unemployment Rates
The national unemployment rate rose to 3.9% over January. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.6%. The unemployment rate for Michigan has not been announced for February. Last year, the rate came in at 3.8%.
Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached. A spokesperson is available for interviews.
February performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with February 2023 results.
Survey responses: 55
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Sales | 42 | 50 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 59.7 |
Inventory | 40 | 45 | 25 | 21 | 35 | 34 | 55.7 | 62.3 |
Prices | 17 | 47 | 7 | 6 | 76 | 47 | 55.6 | 72.4 |
Promotions | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 80 | 84 | 53.5 | 55.4 |
Hiring | 5 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 80 | 77 | 45.4 | 54.0 |
Outlook for the next three months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with February 2023 results.
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Sales | 74 | 63 | 15 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 67.3 | 56.4 |
Inventory | 49 | 57 | 20 | 23 | 31 | 20 | 51.4 | 53.5 |
Prices | 39 | 60 | 4 | 7 | 57 | 33 | 62.8 | 72.4 |
Promotions | 44 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 54 | 64.7 | 63.0 |
Hiring | 24 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 73 | 57 | 51.3 | 48.4 |
February sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region
The first number indicates sales performance for the month; number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.
% Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | Current | 3-Month | |
North | 22 | 78 | 56 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
West | 33 | 87 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Central | 67 | 67 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
East | 50 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 17 | 33 |
Southeast | 50 | 76 | 44 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.