Indexes Suggest Growth Moved Back Above Trend in October
The Brave-Butters-Kelley (BBK) Coincident Index was 0.9 standard deviations from trend growth in October 2021, and the BBK Leading Index was –0.4 standard deviations from trend growth. In annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) units, the trend component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth was 2.4% in October and the cycle component was 2.8%. The leading subcomponent contributed –0.8% and the lagging subcomponent contributed 3.6% to the cycle component of BBK Monthly GDP Growth.