Current Data

*The October 16, 2025, U.S. Census Bureau release of retail sales data for September was postponed because of the federal government shutdown. The October 31, 2025, CARTS release contains a preliminary estimate of retail and food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) for October and a revised estimate for September. The revised estimate for September incorporates both revisions to historical data as well as updated weather & seasonal effects estimates in addition to the rescheduled October 24, 2025, release of CPI data for September.

Preliminary Release for October 2025

For the month of October, retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) are projected to increase +0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and to increase +0.2% when adjusted for inflation. For the month of September, retail & food services sales ex. auto are projected to increase +0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis and to decrease –0.1% when adjusted for inflation.

The table contains month-over-month (m/m) percent changes for retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto. Inflation-adjusted retail & food services sales ex. auto are constructed using the price deflator for the similar category. The latest monthly values in the table are projections based on the Weekly Indexes of Retail Trade and Prices using data available as of October 31, 2025.

Recent Monthly Values
percent change, m/m

*Retail sales projections are based on the MRTS & MARTS and weekly data for retail transactions from Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Numerator, and SafeGraph; retail foot traffic from Advan Research; gasoline sales from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); and consumer sentiment from Morning Consult. Retail & food services sales ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency dynamic factor model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Trade. Retail price projections are based on the BEA retail & food services ex. auto chain-weighted price index and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index for commodities ex. motor vehicles; weekly gas prices from the EIA; a weekly index of online prices from State Street PriceStats; and the monthly Adobe Digital Price Index. Retail & food services prices ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency vector autoregressive model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Prices.

The first figure shows retail & food services sales ex. auto from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) and Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS). Also shown in the figure as a seasonally adjusted monthly rate is a weekly index of retail trade that is benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s data. The index summarizes weekly data on retail transactions & foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment, and is used to project current monthly retail & food services sales ex. auto.

The second figure shows retail & food services prices ex. auto as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) chain-weighted price index. Also shown in the figure is a seasonally adjusted weekly index of retail prices that is bench-marked to the BEA’s data. The index summarizes weekly data on gasoline prices and monthly and weekly measures of online prices.