The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) tracks the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) on a weekly basis, providing an early snapshot of national retail spending. Updates to CARTS are released at 8:30 a.m. ET on scheduled days. CARTS is released 1) a day ahead of the U.S. Census Bureau’s retail sales release summarizing data through the end of the prior month (final release) and 2) near the end of each month summarizing the weekly data available through mid-month (preliminary release).

Final Release for January 2025

In the fourth week of January, the Weekly Index of Retail Trade decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis after increasing 0.6% in the previous week. For the month of January, retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) are projected to increase 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis and to increase 0.5% when adjusted for inflation.

The table contains month-over-month (m/m) percent changes for retail & food services sales and prices ex. auto. Inflation-adjusted retail & food services sales ex. auto are constructed using the price deflator for the similar category. The latest monthly values in the table are projections based on the Weekly Indexes of Retail Trade and Prices using data available as of February 12, 2025.

Recent Monthly Values
percent change, m/m

*Retail sales projections are based on the MRTS & MARTS and weekly data for retail transactions from Bloomberg Second Measure, Consumer Edge, Facteus, Numerator, and SafeGraph; retail foot traffic from Advan Research; gasoline sales from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); and consumer sentiment from Morning Consult. Retail & food services sales ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency dynamic factor model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Trade. Retail price projections are based on the BEA retail & food services ex. auto chain-weighted price index and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index for commodities ex. motor vehicles; weekly gas prices from the EIA; a weekly index of online prices from State Street PriceStats; and the monthly Adobe Digital Price Index. Retail & food services prices ex. auto are projected from the mixed-frequency vector autoregressive model used to estimate the Weekly Index of Retail Prices.

The first figure shows retail & food services sales ex. auto from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) and Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS). Also shown in the figure as a seasonally adjusted monthly rate is a weekly index of retail trade that is benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s data. The index summarizes weekly data on retail transactions & foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment, and is used to project current monthly retail & food services sales ex. auto.

The second figure shows retail & food services prices ex. auto as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) chain-weighted price index. Also shown in the figure is a seasonally adjusted weekly index of retail prices that is bench-marked to the BEA’s data. The index summarizes weekly data on gasoline prices and monthly and weekly measures of online prices.