Michigan Retail Index

Michigan Retailers’ Sales Rise in December, Holiday Season Outperforms Year

Holiday shopping drives a second consecutive month of positive sales activity

LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that December 2024’s Retail Index rose significantly to 58.2, in comparison to November’s 54.1 on the 100-point Retail Index. December 2024 sales marked the highest month of activity in 2024.

The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

Fifty-five percent of retailers noted an increase in December sales over November, 34% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 11% reported no change. The December 2024 index number indicates shoppers had plenty left to buy for following the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

“We love to see the year end on a high note. This rounds out a strong quarter for the retail industry, with October, November, and December all reporting positive Retail Index values, each month beating 2023’s numbers by more than 10 points. We hope to see this trend continue into 2025,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association.

Retailers Report Solid 3-Month Optimism Into 2025

When asked to predict their sales outlook for January through March, 41% of retailers predicted their sales will continue to rise, 34% said they expect their sales to decline, and 25% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 72.5, an increase over November’s three-month prediction of 69.1, and a positive indication for a strong first-quarter in 2025.

“It’s not abnormal to see strong 3-month outlooks heading into the holiday season, but it’s exciting to see the Index continuing to rise as we enter the new year. The 2025 Q1 outlook is the highest three-month outlook Index rating we’ve seen since April 2023,” Hallan shared. “With every 3-month outlook figure improving over last December’s Index, it’s clear that retailers are feeling quite optimistic about the year ahead.”

Michigan Holiday Season & Yearly Statistics

Looking at annual figures, 48% of retailers noted an increase in sales, 47% saw a decrease, and 5% noted no change. Most notably in the Michigan Retail Index report, the holiday season outperformed the entire year, with 58% of retailers reporting a sales increase, 33% seeing a decrease, and 9% seeing no change.

NRF Calls Holiday Shopping Season a Notable Success

Nationally, holiday season retail sales grew 4% over 2023, reaching a record high $994.1 billion. The National Retail Federation also reported a 3.6% growth in core retail sales over 2023, with annual sales reaching $5.28 trillion.

“It’s this time of year that consumers are more intentional about establishing new habits. We’re encouraging consumers to make 2025 the year of intentionally supporting local retail and small businesses,” said Hallan. “Every purchase makes a difference – shifting just 10% of your out-of-state e-commerce purchases to local business would increase Michigan’s economic activity by $1.5 billion.”

Unemployment Rates

Michigan’s December 2024 unemployment rate has yet to be reported. In November 2024 the unemployment rate was 4.8% in Michigan. Last December, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.1%. The national unemployment rate in December dipped to 4.1% over November’s 4.2%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.8%.

Breakdowns of the current, three-month, and regional results are attached.

December performance

Retailers reporting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with December 2023 results.
Survey responses: 44

Outlook for the next three months

Retailers expecting increased, decreased, or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to last month, along with December 2023 results.

December sales performance and outlook for the next three months, by region

The first number indicates sales performance for the month; number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, the sum of the % of respondents indicating increase and half the % indicating no change, is calculated, and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity. Values below 50 indicate a decrease.