Just how bleak is the long-term fiscal forecast for Illinois? And what are the possible solutions, if any, to the state’s financial troubles? These were among the challenging questions raised at the Illinois Fiscal Outlook Breakfast, held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Institute of Government and Public Affairs (IGPA) on February 27, 2015. The event was attended by about ... Read More
A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District remained moderate in January and early February, and contacts expected growth to continue at a similar pace over the next six to twelve months. Consumer spending... Read More
With much of the regional economic data for 2014 now available, it is a good time to look at how the Seventh District1 economy performed last year. While the District had a slow start to the year because of the harsh winter weather, it recovered well in the spring, and finished the year on strong footing. By many measures, 2014 was the best year for the District since the Great Recession ended. T... Read More
A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District remained moderate in December, and contacts expected growth to continue at a similar pace in 2015. Consumer spending: Growth in consumer spending remained modera... Read More
On November 17, 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference which examined the role of farm income in the Midwest economy. (Check the event page to see the agenda and download presentations.) The conference explored both the decline in agriculture's role over the longer term and the marked increase in the level of agricultural income over the past decade. Within this context, an i... Read More
On January 22, 2015, the Detroit Association of Business Economists (DABE) held its annual Automotive Outlook Symposium at the Detroit Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The event was attended by approximately 50 guests, including DABE members together with other local business leaders, academics, and media representatives. I was among the speakers, as was Peter Sweatman, director of ... Read More
A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District remained moderate in October and November. Contacts expressed optimism for the coming year, but were concerned about weakening foreign growth and the possibility o... Read More
The fortunes of the city of Chicago have become clouded in recent years as concerns over its weakening finances and heavy debt obligations have grown. The tally for the unfunded public employee debt obligations of Chicago's overlapping units of local governments (including those for public schools, parks, and county services) is now approaching $30 billion. Moreover, the city government h... Read More
In March 2013, Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen (then Vice Chair) gave a speech where she discussed the centrality of labor market conditions in the Fed's decision-making process. The most often discussed indicator of labor market conditions is the unemployment rate, but in this speech and others since,1 Chair Yellen has said that she tracks a number of other labor market indicato... Read More
Agriculture is a vital building block for the economy of the Midwest, producing raw materials for food and biofuels manufacturing, as well as stimulating demand for farm equipment, trucks, and more. Income produced by agricultural operations is a key component of personal income in rural areas. This income from farm households supports businesses on the Main Streets of rural towns. Howeve... Read More
