The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.38 in April, up slightly from +0.35 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators in the index made positive contributions
(see sidebar). The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was +0.25 in April. A CFNAI-MA3 reading above zero is associated with above-trend economic growth; accordingly, the CFNAI-MA3 value of +0.25 in April suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. With regard to inflation, a CFNAI-MA3 value above zero indicates the potential for inflationary pressures over the coming year.