Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC)
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) is a survey of business contacts conducted to support the Seventh Federal Reserve District’s contribution to the Beige Book. The Chicago Fed produces diffusion indexes based on the quantitative questions in the survey that are released at 3:00 p.m. ET (2:00 p.m. CT) on the same day of the official release of the Beige Book.
Latest CFSBC Release
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) Activity Index increased to +1 from –8, suggesting that growth in economic activity picked up to a moderate pace in late May and June.
CFSBC Activity Index and U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
Note: CFSBC Activity Index values are rescaled to be in terms of annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) growth by taking the fitted values from a regression of GDP growth on the CFSBC Activity Index. Sources: Chicago Fed staff calculations and GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis from Haver Analytics.
Download the indexes.
The CFSBC diffusion indexes are derived from nine questions that cover product demand, hiring, capital spending and input costs. Respondents report how these aspects of their businesses have changed over the past four to six weeks (or are expected to change in the next six to 12 months) on a seven-point scale. Each diffusion index is calculated as the difference between the number of respondents with answers above their respective average responses and the number of respondents with answers below their respective average responses, divided by the total number of respondents. The index is then multiplied by 100 so that it ranges from +100 to −100. Respondents with no prior history of responses are excluded from the calculation. As an example, for the CFSBC Activity Index, if 30 respondents report above-average product demand growth, 20 respondents report below-average demand growth and there are 100 total respondents, the index will have a value of +10. On average, there are about 120 survey respondents, representing the banking and finance (17 percent), construction and real estate (18 percent), manufacturing (32 percent) and nonfinancial services (34 percent) sectors.
For a detailed description of the diffusion indexes and their properties, see the Chicago Fed Economic Perspectives article titled “The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District's Beige Book Report.”