Indicators, performance, and policy in the 1930s and today
Recent economic growth has
been sluggish despite persistent
attempts to stimulate the
economy. The apparently unresponsive nature of the
economy is quite unusual in recent history,
leading observers to search back in history for
similar periods that might help explain the
anomaly of the present.
This article compares
monetary policy and economic performance in
the current period with monetary policy and
economic performance in the 1930s. The article
argues that the current period is in a number
of important respects qualitatively, if not quantitatively,
similar to the early 1930s. In particular,
the last three years are similar to the early
1930s in having the absence of strong economic
growth, sharply lower short term interest rates,
widening spreads between long term and short
term interest rates, and stronger growth in the
monetary base (a narrow monetary aggregate)
than in the broader aggregates (M2 and M3).