On This Page: Vol. 38, First Quarter, 2014

Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Last Updated: 04/29/14

The authors present an alternative version of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is constructed using a methodology that allows for a more robust treatment of the underlying data series than its traditional methodology. This alternative CFNAI produces superior predictions of real gross domestic product growth for the current quarter (nowcasts) while correlating more closely with U.S. recessions than the traditional index.