Robert Solow, an accomplished economist, once said that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”1 Similarly, the reshoring of manufacturing activities to the U.S. has been highly touted over the past two years, even though the evidence for it has been scarce. As skeptical analysts and journalists alike have indicated, if reshoring were taking place o... Read More

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Economic activity in the Seventh District expanded at a modest pace. Consumer spending: G... Read More

A famous quote by a notable economist, Herbert Stein, is that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” An independent “State Budget Crisis Task Force” recently concluded unambiguously that “The existing trajectory of (Illinois) state spending and taxation cannot be sustained.” This follows a growing recognition by many observers and analysts that state government (and m... Read More

In 2011, the Chicago Fed began providing quarterly estimates of annual GSP growth for each of the five states in the Seventh District in its Midwest Economy Index (MEI) releases. In this blog, we present what we've forecasted for each state in 2012 along with an explanation of the factors behind our projections. Background on the Midwest Economy Index The MEI is a weigh... Read More

Illinois continues to face a bleak fiscal outlook. Despite the sharp increases in Illinois’s personal and corporate income tax rates, the state still faces $10 billion in unpaid bills and an unfunded pension liability approaching $100 billion. To get back to a sustainable fiscal path, Illinois will require significant revenue increases or spending cuts or, most likely, some combination of... Read More

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Economic activity in the Seventh District continued to expand at a slow pace in January and February. Consumer spending: Consumer spending increas... Read More

New technologies and techniques to extract natural gas and gas liquids, as well as petroleum, from shale rock have greatly altered expectations for North America's capacity to produce energy products. As a result of innovations such as hydraulic fracturing, some government, industry, and academic observers have predicted that the United States will soon become energy self-sufficient and possibly ... Read More

Over the past few decades, U.S. immigrant groups have abandoned a longstanding pattern of settling predominantly in major urban areas. Rather, their residential areas have expanded and diversified to rural locales and smaller metropolitan areas, along with the traditional settlement areas in big cities such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, and Boston. And within these big cities,... Read More

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity: Overall conditions: Economic activity in the Seventh District continued to expand at a slow pace in late November and December. Consumer spending: Consumer spending i... Read More

Followers of the Midwest Economy will be interested to learn that my co-workers at the Detroit Branch of the Chicago Fed have launched a blog that focuses on the Michigan Economy. This blog will serve as a portal for our numerous activities concerning Michigan, ranging from economic analysis to community development and economic education. Moreover, the Michigan Economy blog will report on the ma... Read More