• Print
  • Email

Working Papers, No. 2022-19, May 2022 Crossref
A Machine Learning Projection Method for Macro-Finance Models

(Revised September 6, 2023)

We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic simulation, it is likely to suffer from multicollinearity. We show that a neural network-based expectations algorithm can deal efficiently with multicollinearity by extending the optimal debt management problem studied by Faraglia et al. (2019) to four maturities. We find that the optimal policy prescribes an active role for the newly added medium-term maturities, enabling the planner to raise financial income without increasing its total borrowing in response to expenditure shocks. Through this mechanism, the government effectively subsidizes the private sector during recessions.


Working papers are not edited, and all opinions and errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

Subscribe

Register to receive email alerts when new issues are published.

Subscription Signup

Your request has been submitted. Please tell us more about yourself.

Subscription More Info
Having trouble accessing something on this page? Please send us an email and we will get back to you as quickly as we can.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60604-1413, USA. Tel. (312) 322-5322

Copyright © 2025. All rights reserved.

Please review our Privacy Policy | Legal Notices